Road to Depression

High household debt may be biggest hurdle to U.S. recovery!

on . Posted in Road to Depression

NEW YORK - July 5, 2011 - Two years ago, U.S. officials said the worst recession since the Great Depression ended. The stumbling recovery has also proven to be the worst since that economic disaster of the 1930s.

Across a wide range of measures - employment growth, unemployment levels, bank lending, economic output, income growth, home prices and household expectations for financial well being - the economy's improvement since the supposed end of the recession in June 2009 has been the worst, or one of the worst, since the government started tracking these trends after World War II.

In some ways the ongoing recovery is much like the 1991 and 2001 post-recession periods - all three were marked by gradual output-growth rather than sharp snap-backs typical of earlier recoveries. But this recovery may remain lackluster for years, many economists say, because of heavy household debt, a financial system still damaged by the mortgage crisis, fragile confidence, and a government with few good options for supporting growth.

There are bright spots, however. Exports, particularly of manufactured and agricultural goods, are improving, in part because of booming developing-country economies and the weaker U.S. dollar. They are expected to pick up in the second half of the year as the temporary shock fades from Japan's earthquake and tsunami. In a hint of this, the Institute of Supply Management on Friday reported an up tick in manufacturing for June. Higher corporate profits, stock prices and business investment also are supporting the expansion.

Still, broader problems are holding back the economy.

Banks are less able or willing to lend than before the recession. Since the recovery started, banks have reduced money they make available through credit card lines from $3.04 trillion to $2.69 trillion, and have reduced home equity credit lines from $1.33 trillion to $1.15 trillion, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Meanwhile, policy makers are reluctant to do more to stimulate economic growth.

Ed. Note: There is no recovery! It never was a recession! The United States remains mired in the Second Great Depression!

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