WASHINGTON - March 24, 2010 - The bursting of the real estate bubble and the ensuing Depression have hurt jobs, home prices, and now Social Security.

This year, the system will pay out more in benefits than it receives in payroll taxes, an important threshold it was not expecting to cross until at least 2016, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

Stephen C. Goss, chief actuary of the Social Security Administration, said that while the congressional projection would probably be borne out, the change would have no effect on benefits in 2010 and retirees would keep receiving their checks as usual.

The problem, he said, is that payments have risen more than expected during the downturn because jobs disappeared and people applied for benefits sooner than they had planned. At the same time, the program’s revenue has fallen sharply, because there are fewer paychecks to tax.