NEW YORK (PNN) - December 5, 2012 - No matter how strong or weak Friday’s payroll number is, expect any analysis to carry caveats. November’s economic performance was skewed by Mother Nature, politics and the calendar.

A hint of the data-roiling was evident on Wednesday. Payroll giant ADP reported an increase of just 118,000 private-sector jobs in November. But the report pointed to aberrations.

Super storm Hurricane Sandy wreaked havoc by slicing an estimated 86,000 jobs from payrolls. However the drag was offset by an early Thanksgiving. Retailers probably hired holiday help earlier in November than in the past. That added an estimated of between 60,000 and 70,000 retail slots last month.

While better than the reported 118,000, the pace is only a bit above the rate needed to draw down the jobless rate, he said. That means unemployment will remain high for a few more years to come.

Moody’s Analytics changed its payroll forecast after seeing Monday’s disappointing factory survey done by the Institute for Supply Management. The forecasting firm now expects Friday’s report to show a 70,000 rise in jobs, down from the 100,000 expected last week.

That change moved Moody’s number closer to the median average of 80,000 new jobs added last month.