Solar lows caused extreme European winters!
LONDON, England - October 10, 2011 - The link between extreme winter weather in North America and Europe - including the cold spells of the last three years - and the 11-year solar cycle is growing stronger.
Last year, New Scientist reported that physicists suspected events in the stratosphere linked solar activity to extreme winters in the UK.
Climate scientists at the UK Met Office have done a new analysis of fluctuations in the Sun's UV radiation, which reinforces that link and suggests a mechanism for how solar activity may affect seasonal weather. The team emphasizes that their findings do not suggest a link to long-term global warming.
The researchers used satellite measurements to show that fluctuations in solar UV radiation are five times as large as previously thought.
When they plugged the data into the Hadley Center computer model - one of the leading models of world climate - they were able to show how these fluctuations affect regional weather.
"Our research confirms the observed link between solar variability and regional winter climate," Sarah Ineson, the lead author on the study, told International Business Times. "It's more than just coincidence, there's a real correlation between ultraviolet levels and meteorological variables."
The authors emphasize that cooler temperatures in Northern Europe are accompanied by warmer ones further south, resulting in no net overall cooling. "It's a jigsaw puzzle, and when you average it up over the globe, there is no effect on global temperatures," Adam Scaife, head of the UK Met Office's Seasonal to Decadal Prediction team, told BBC News.
The UV measurements could lead to better forecasting. "While UV levels won't tell us what the day-to-day weather will do, they provide the exciting prospect of improved forecasts for winter conditions for months and even years ahead. These forecasts play an important role in long-term contingency planning," said Ineson.
