AMBROSE EVANS-PRITCHARD: Barrick shuts hedge book as world gold supply runs out!
Global gold production is in terminal decline despite record prices and Herculean efforts by mining companies to discover fresh sources of ore in remote spots, according to the world's top producer Barrick Gold.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
LONDON, England - November 11, 2009 - Aaron Regent, president of the Canadian gold giant, said that global output has been falling by roughly 1 million ounces a year since the start of the decade. Total mine supply has dropped by 10% as ore quality erodes, implying that the roaring bull market of the last eight years may have further to run.
"There is a strong case to be made that we are already at 'peak gold'," he told The Daily Telegraph at the RBC Capital Market's annual gold conference in London.
"Production peaked around 2000 and it has been in decline ever since, and we forecast that decline to continue. It is increasingly difficult to find ore," he said.
Ore grades have fallen from around 12 grams per tonne in 1950 to nearer 3 grams in the U.S., Canada, and Australia. South Africa's output has halved since peaking in 1970.
The supply crunch has helped push gold to an all-time high, reaching $1,118 an ounce at one stage yesterday. The key driver over recent days has been the move by India's central bank to soak up half of the gold being sold by the International Monetary Fund. It is the latest sign that the rising powers of Asia and the commodity bloc are growing wary of Western paper money and debt.
China has quietly doubled holdings to 1,054 tonnes and is thought to be adding gradually on price dips, creating a market floor. Gold remains a tiny fraction of its $2.3 trillion in foreign reserves.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
LONDON, England - November 11, 2009 - Aaron Regent, president of the Canadian gold giant, said that global output has been falling by roughly 1 million ounces a year since the start of the decade. Total mine supply has dropped by 10% as ore quality erodes, implying that the roaring bull market of the last eight years may have further to run.
"There is a strong case to be made that we are already at 'peak gold'," he told The Daily Telegraph at the RBC Capital Market's annual gold conference in London.
"Production peaked around 2000 and it has been in decline ever since, and we forecast that decline to continue. It is increasingly difficult to find ore," he said.
Ore grades have fallen from around 12 grams per tonne in 1950 to nearer 3 grams in the U.S., Canada, and Australia. South Africa's output has halved since peaking in 1970.
The supply crunch has helped push gold to an all-time high, reaching $1,118 an ounce at one stage yesterday. The key driver over recent days has been the move by India's central bank to soak up half of the gold being sold by the International Monetary Fund. It is the latest sign that the rising powers of Asia and the commodity bloc are growing wary of Western paper money and debt.
China has quietly doubled holdings to 1,054 tonnes and is thought to be adding gradually on price dips, creating a market floor. Gold remains a tiny fraction of its $2.3 trillion in foreign reserves.
