Global inflation fears reach new heights!
LONDON, England - January. 24, 2011 - Rapid inflation and robust demand in China and other emerging markets are rippling through to the still recuperating developed world, driving up prices from the gas pump to McDonald’s.
As inflation warnings grow more strident, along with the cost of food, energy and other key commodities in regions such as Asia, monetary authorities around the world are renewing their vows to keep an old arch-enemy in check, even if that means higher interest rates when their troubled economies can least afford them.
Signs of trouble are cropping up in all the high-growth areas. Brazil’s inflation forecast has been raised weekly since the beginning of December. So far this year, consumer prices in Vietnam are running more than 12% higher than a year ago. In India and Russia, prices are 8% higher. Food costs globally are climbing even faster than in 2007 and 2008, when sharp increases triggered riots in Asia and elsewhere.
Surging inflation in emerging markets, if unchecked, threatens to undermine the global recovery because it would curb growth in those regions, which have driven the global rebound. Countries that export key natural resources, such as Canada and Australia, could be hit hard by shrinking demand if the Chinese juggernaut slows.
Inflationary pressure could also force a hike in interest rates in industrial regions, such as Europe, where the economies are still struggling to climb back from the Depression.
Food prices hit a record level last month, according to United Nations statistics, and are forecast to grow by more than 30% this year. In a worst-case situation of critical shortages sketched by Citigroup, Inc. analysts, prices could skyrocket by as much as 75%.
“Where you get social disruption is when something happens very quickly and that is what happened with the price spike in 2007-08 and that is what is happening [again],” the British government’s chief scientist, John Beddington, told reporters Monday after releasing a report on food security challenges.