Top forecasters say the worst is yet to come for the euro!
NEW YORK - December 6, 2010 - The most accurate foreign-exchange strategists say the euro’s worst annual performance since 2005 will extend into next year as the region’s sovereign-debt crisis saps economic growth.
Standard Chartered Plc, the top overall forecaster in the six quarters ended September 30 based on data compiled by Bloomberg, predicted the euro may weaken to less than $1.20 by mid-2011 from about $1.33 today. Westpac Banking Corp., the second most accurate, is “bearish in the short term,” and No. 3 Wells Fargo & Co. cut its outlook at the end of last week.
The 16-nation currency’s first weekly gain against the dollar since November 5 may prove short-lived amid mounting concern that more nations will need rescues. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet delayed the end of emergency stimulus measures last week and stepped up government-debt purchases as acute market tensions drove yields on Spanish and Italian bonds to the highest levels relative to German bunds since the euro started in 1999.
“We’re going to get a continuation of the problems that Ireland, Portugal, Spain and others are suffering,” said Callum Henderson, Standard Chartered’s global head of foreign-exchange research in Singapore. “The fundamental issue is these are countries that have relatively large debts, large budget deficits, and large current-account deficits; they don’t have their own currency and they can’t cut interest rates. The only way they can get out of this is to have significant recessions.”