WASHINGTON - November 24, 2009 - Unemployment and tight credit have sapped shoppers' willingness and ability to spend freely as retailers enter their crucial holiday season. Additionally, Amerikans are expected to grow more cautious about spending next year.

The economy grew at a 2.8% rate last quarter. Forecasts for the current quarter are for similarly lackluster growth before a drop-off next year.

"It's hardly a rip-roaring recovery," said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services. "Usually coming out of a (Depression) you get growth more like a rodeo bull - at a pace of 6% or 7% in the early quarters of recovery. That isn't happening. It is coming out of the stalls more like a fat cow."

The Commerce Department's revised estimate of Gross Domestic Product for July through September was less than the 3.5% growth rate foreseen just a month ago. The estimate for GDP - the value of goods and services produced in the United States - was a tad less than the 2.9% growth rate that economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters had expected.

The main factors behind the downgrade: Consumers didn't spend as much. Commercial construction weakened. Imports exerted more of a drag on the economy; and businesses also trimmed more of their stockpiles, further restraining growth.

At the same time, the Conference Board's latest survey of consumer confidence found gloom among shoppers.

"I really won't be spending money on Christmas," said Ivan Horne, 47, of Tampa, Florida, who has been out of work for about a year. "I'm barely able to make enough to survive."

An Associated Press-GfK poll released this week found that 93% of Amerikans say they'll spend less this holiday season or about the same as last year.

Also on Tuesday, the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index of 20 major cities suggested that the summer's trend of rising home prices is slowing; and analysts expect prices to dip again this winter as foreclosures rise.

Many economists say they think the economy will weaken again next year. Some project growth at a pace of around 1% as the benefits of the $787 billion stimulus package fade and consumers keep tightening.

"I think when the bills come in January, you'll see consumers pull back," said Brian Bethune, economist at IHS Global Insight.

In the third quarter, the Cash for Clunkers rebates and an $8,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers juiced up sales of cars and homes. The clunkers program ended in August. But the tax credit has been extended and expanded beyond first-time buyers.

It's unclear whether any U.S. recovery will endure after government supports are gone. If consumers clam up, the economy could tip back into Depression.