NEW YORK - May 26, 2009 - Gold may target a record $1,250 an ounce as a continuation of a head-and-shoulders pattern may be forming within a longer-term trend, Standard Bank Group Ltd. said, citing trading patterns.

A break and close above $1,050.40 “provides warning that an important breakout” has occurred, Darran Grabham, the bank’s technical analyst, wrote in a note yesterday. A head-and-shoulders pattern is formed when a commodity makes three consecutive peaks, with the middle being the highest. It forms during a series of increases over time.

“The positive implications are substantial, with the minimum objective situated at $1,250,” Grabham wrote. “On the downside, gold weakness through $864 turns the outlook bearish, and the weaker trend could then continue towards $802.”

Gold for immediate delivery traded at $957.29 an ounce at 8:09 a.m. Singapore time. The precious metal is down 7.4 percent from its record high of $1,032.70 on March 17, 2008.

In the near term, a negative bias is expected to dominate in the days ahead as the positive trend has faltered in the $960 to $966.70 area, Grabham wrote.

“A decline into the $940 to $935 zone is anticipated, with $935 regarded as an important support point over the next week or so,” he wrote. “We expect gold to enter a period of consolidation below $966.70, before a break higher occurs, setting up a test on $980.” So-called support levels are where buy orders are clustered.