NEW YORK, (PNN) - July 30, 2016 - It’s earnings season once again and it looks as if, as a group, corporate Amerika still can’t find the end of its earnings decline since profits peaked over a year ago. What’s more, analysts renowned for their Pollyannish expectations can’t seem to find it, either.

I thought it might be interesting to look at what the stock market has done in the past during earnings recessions comparable to the current one. It’s pretty eye opening. Over the past half-century, we have never seen a decline in earnings of this magnitude without at least a 20% fall in stock prices, a hurdle many use to define a bear market. In other words, buying the new highs in the S&P 500 today means you believe “this time is different”. It could turn out that way but history shows that sort of thinking to be very dangerous to your financial well being.