Will Greece resolution spark a bigger crisis?
ATHENS, Greece - March 8, 2012 - Markets around the world were buoyed on hopes that Greece’s long and winding journey to debt restructuring may at last be at its final port of call.
But some are warning that this may actually be the beginning of a new and more dangerous crisis.
The private sector is being asked to write off more than 70% of the face value of their Greek government bonds in return for new debt. This will help Greece meet its debt obligations and enable it to tap into bailout funds from the EU and IMF.
It seems likely that other nations burdened by heavy debt loads and high interest rates may seek to follow Greece’s path to debt relief. If Greece doesn’t have to pay what it owes, they might argue, why should we?
European officials insist that Greece is a one-time deal, not meant to set a precedent for other nations. But it is easy to see that minority parties in debt-burdened European nations could find a demand for relief an attractive platform. Imposing a “tax” on bondholders rather asking citizens to pay higher taxes while public services are cut might prove popular with voters.
Demands for debt relief could take many forms. Greece has been able to encourage bondholders to participate in the debt swap by enacting laws that incorporated “collective action clauses” into the 86% of bonds governed by Greek law. These clauses allow super-majorities of bondholders to force holdouts to participate in swaps. Other countries in the euro zone could replicate this strategy, which would cause a fresh round of economic troubles for the world.