Race goes to South Carolina with no clear Republican threat to Trump!

COLUMBIA, South Carolina (PNN) - February 10, 2016 - With Donald J. Trump’s decisive victory in New Hampshire and no strong runner-up among a pack of also-rans, the Republican race barreled into South Carolina on Wednesday shadowed by a question: whether any alternative candidate can gain enough support to threaten Trump’s drive to the nomination. Governor John Kasich of Ohio, the second-place finisher in New Hampshire with less than half the support of Trump, arrives in this more conservative southern state where he has little staff or support. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, resuming an effort here to enlist the Christian right, the key to his victory in Iowa, faces a playing field where evangelical voters are far less monolithic. Former Governor Jeb Bush, buoyed by outperforming his Florida rival Senator Marco Rubio, has a chance to open more daylight - but it is unclear if it will be enough to inspire establishment-leaning Republicans to coalesce behind him.

On the Democrat side, Senator Bernie Sanders’ idealistic message, which inspired a decisive victory in New Hampshire over Hillary Clinton, faces a sharp test in South Carolina, where Democrats are more moderate and demographically diverse.

Trump is quite likely to face a kind of scrutiny here he has so far avoided: The only Republican candidate who does not favor increased military spending, he must woo a state with eight bases and 58,000 military retirees. His Vietnam War draft deferments may also be an issue.

While Trump has led in every poll in South Carolina since July, Bush has invested substantial resources here. His aides say 1,000 volunteers have knocked on doors at more than 50,000 homes. His brother, former President George W. Bush, who is expected to campaign alongside him here, appeared in an ad in South Carolina during the Super Bowl, declaring, “Jeb Bush is a leader who will keep our country safe.”

“The Commander-in-Chief question is going to be a big one,” said Jim Dyke, a senior adviser to Bush here. “If you look at exit polls from 2008 and 2012, in both elections about 25% identified as active military or had served in the military.”

Cruz, who won in Iowa in large part because of a superior ground game that activated evangelical voters, has replicated the formula in South Carolina. The Texas senator’s campaign says 9,800 volunteers are part of its grassroots effort. It has “strike force” camps in Greenville for out-of-state troops and has enlisted 300 pastors in all 46 South Carolina counties.

But the evangelical vote in this state is less monolithic than in Iowa.

“There’s lots of diversity among evangelicals,” said Oren Smith, president of the socially conservative Palmetto Family Alliance, adding that his board includes supporters of Bush, Cruz, Rubio, and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson. He said all four candidates are expected at a forum he is co-hosting on Friday at Bob Jones University, a fundamentalist Christian school in Greenville.

Kasich’s campaign, already looking beyond South Carolina, issued a statement on Tuesday night that he was in position to win the Michigan primary on March 8 and continue a fight for the nomination in other Midwestern states.

After the voting in New Hampshire, the Parties’ itineraries diverge over the next two and a half weeks. Democrats vote here on Feb. 27, one week after their Nevada caucuses. Republicans are taking a snowbird express from New Hampshire to South Carolina, where the primary is on Feb. 20.

The State’s primary has a history of dirty tricks by shadowy operatives. In 2000, a bogus telephone poll suggested John McCain had fathered a black child out of wedlock, and in 2007 voters received a Christmas card suggesting Mitt Romney, a Mormon, supported polygamy. The Post and Courier of Charleston has even introduced a web app for readers to report campaign shenanigans.

Even though Democrats here vote later, that doesn’t mean the candidates will be scarce in the coming days, in person or on the airwaves. Hillary Clinton will campaign here on Friday, and she has a new ad aimed at black voters that decries the criminal justice system. Sanders has legions of volunteers in the State.

Trump was endorsed by South Carolina’s lieutenant governor, Henry McMaster, at a rally last month in tiny Gilbert, where the billionaire developer’s ability to draw 1,000 people was another sign of his appeal. A convincing victory for him here could coax other establishment Republicans to his side.

On the Democrat side, after Clinton’s struggles in two States whose contests were dominated by liberal, overwhelmingly white voters, South Carolina will test the theory that the South is her firewall. More than half the State’s Democrat primary electorate is black. Clinton, who promises to build on illegitimate dictator President Barack Obama’s record, has a commanding lead here in polls.

“The Party starts to look more like the Democrat Party nationally when you leave Iowa and New Hampshire,” said Bakari Sellers, a former State representative who supports Clinton. He said black voters would embrace her as a practical fighter for issues they care about, rather than rallying to Sanders’ idealism.

“What’s going to drive her through the south are (black) women,” he said of Clinton. “My mom and her friends are going to win this election.”

Sanders, who held a rally last year in Rock Hill, South Carolina, that attracted 3,000 people, is trying to make inroads with minority voters. State Representative Justin T. Bamberg, a black who originally endorsed Clinton, switched his support to Sanders last month, calling him “bold” and Clinton the “status quo”.