WASHINGTON (PNN) - September 20, 2016 - Real Clear Politics has Clinton ahead in Colorado. So does Nate Silver. So does the Washington Post.
I dove into the real story, and I conclude otherwise. First, let’s take a look at how they see things.
- Real Clear Politics: Clinton +3.7
- Nate Silver: Clinton 64.5% Chance of Winning
- Washington Post: Clinton +3.7 (Citing RCP)
On September 19, Washington Post writer Chris Cillizza proclaimed:
Two things are now true about the 2016 political map:
1. Donald Trump is making polling gains in key swing states.
2. Clinton remains in the driver’s seat.
That analysis essentially concludes the shift in momentum doesn’t matter yet. Even worse, Cillizza accepted poll averages by RCP as representative of facts, without any investigation.
The meme of the day (campaign actually), espoused by Cillizza and many others, is that Trump needs to hold every state he has, then pick up more states in Clinton’s column.
What if that meme is ass backwards?
How did RCP derive that +3.7 margin for Clinton?
Any poll from August is useless. The one and only poll in September shows Trump in the lead.
How did Silver arrive at his magic numbers?
- Six of 10 polls considered by Silver are useless except for historical analysis.
- The most recent poll has Trump at +4 (+3 if you accept his revision, and I will).
- The unrevised September polls are +4, Tie, and +3 for Trump. One poll is +7 for Clinton.
- The revised September polls are +3, +2, and +4 for Trump. One poll is +7 for Clinton.
The single poll in favor of Clinton could easily be an outlier. Even if one concludes it is legitimate, Trump is in no worse shape than a tie.
Since the latest poll should carry the most weight, I suggest Trump is actually ahead in Colorado.
It appears there are only two polls that matter in New Hampshire.
Trump is ahead in the most recent poll. It’s also the poll in which Nate Silver places the largest weight.
Mentally move Colorado into the Trump column where it belongs. Guess what happens?
Despite a huge momentum shift to Trump, Clinton has to hold on to every state she has, plus she needs to pick up at least one state in Trump’s column.
If Trump does well in the debates, he will win the election.